MEXICO NEARSHORING RISK REPORT: BAJA CALIFORNIA

The Mexican state of Baja California and its largest city, Tijuana, present a complex security environment and a MEDIUM level of overall risk due to the presence of powerful organized crime groups that engage in cross-border drug smuggling and other activities. Tijuana is one of the top hotspots for violent crime in Mexico.

Potential risks executives need to monitor include: targeted executive kidnapping, extortion by criminal groups, cargo truck hijacking, violent carjacking, and threats from random gun violence.

For foreign companies operating in Baja California, the primary concern is indirect risks from high overall levels of violence rather than targeted risk such as executive kidnappings or direct extortion attempts. Baja California is a LOW RISK location for executive kidnapping and extortion by criminal groups but is HIGH RISK for random crimes such as carjacking.

TOP PRIORITY RISK: indirect threats from high generalized levels of violence.

TOP RISK TO MONITOR: direct risk from violent, in-transit cargo truck hijacking.

KEY FACTS:

· Tijuana recorded more murders than any other city in Mexico in 2023.

· Baja California was one of Mexico’s ten highest-risk states for violent carjacking in 2023.

· Baja California recorded 12 violent cargo truck hijackings in 2023.

RECENT EVENTS:

November 18, 2023: Gunmen from the Sinaloa Cartel shot at the state prosecutor's office and later assassinated two police officers after corrupt officers allegedly stole a cocaine shipment.

October 12, 2023: Criminal gunmen wearing black military-style attire and face masks used automatic rifles to attack a police patrol on the eastern edge of Tijuana.

June 13, 2023: Tijuana’s mayor moved into a military base after receiving death threats from criminal groups.

UNDERSTANDING THE CONTEXT

Given the institutional weakness of police and prosecutors in Mexico, it is helpful to understand state-level security dynamics as taking place within a balance of power between three main groups: the government, the private sector, and criminal groups. The current risk profile in Baja California is likely more dependent on informal agreements and negotiations between government officials and major criminal groups than it is a result of direct deterrence by prosecutors and police.

PRIVATE SECTOR: In Baja California, the private sector is relatively strong. Latin American Lens gives Baja California a high 4.5 out of 5 rating for private sector capacity. Baja California is the second most important maquiladora state in Mexico, in terms of total workforce. The strength of the state’s private sector is illustrated by the fact that Baja California has the lowest level of informal sector (off-the-books) employment in Mexico. Baja California’s industrial sector employs more than 386,000 people. Baja California’s economy received $1.4 billion in foreign direct investment in 2023, the seventh-highest total of any state in the country. Major employers in Baja California are represented by business chambers including CONCAMIN, COPARMEX, CANACINTRA, and INDEX. These groups are able to effectively liaise with government officials on behalf of foreign companies in Tijuana and advocate for security policies that protect major employers.

GOVERNMENT: As is the case in most of Mexico, in Baja California government capacity is relatively weak. Latin American Lens gives Baja California a medium rating of 2.5 out of 5 for government capacity. The relative weakness of the government in Baja California means that overall security dynamics and levels of violence in Tijuana are determined by patterns of violence between criminal groups in the state. The government in Tijuana has been effective at protecting foreign companies from direct attacks by drug trafficking groups but is far less successful at improving overall levels of security. Baja California has the second lowest number of state police per capita of any state in Mexico. Tijuana has only around 2,000 municipal police officers working. By contrast, Mexico City, a metropolis with a population that is just four times larger than Tijuana’s, has over 90,000 municipal police officers. Over 98 percent of the murders committed in Baja California go unsolved. Coordination of security policy is boosted by the fact that all three levels of government (Tijuana’s mayor, Baja California’s governor, and Mexico’s president) are all members of the party of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Overall, however, government capacity in Baja California is limited by Mexico’s longstanding problems with weak rule of law (Mexico is ranked 116th out of 142 countries) and weak institutional capacity.  

CRIMINAL ECOSYSTEM: In Baja California, the criminal ecosystem is strong. Latin American Lens gives Baja California a high 4.5 out of 5 rating for criminal ecosystem capacity. The state hosts three main transnational organized crime groups: The Sinaloa Cartel, The New Generation Jalisco Cartel, and the remnants of the Arellano-Felix Organization. These groups maintain an ongoing presence of well-armed paramilitary gunmen in Tijuana. The status quo in Tijuana is that powerful criminal groups are able to maintain profitable cross-border drug smuggling operations without significant disruption from local, state, or federal authorities in Mexico. It is highly likely that drug trafficking organizations have reached informal agreements with local authorities.

HIGH IMPACT SECURITY RISKS:

Targeted kidnapping or killing of senior level executives: LOW RISK

Organized crime groups in Baja California (and more generally in Mexico) have not diversified into ongoing efforts to intimidate foreign companies by kidnapping or killing foreign executives.

There are no recent news reports or allegations from local-level sources about executive kidnappings in Baja California. Government data on kidnappings in Mexico is not a reliable tool for assessing risk as many kidnappings are not reported. Kidnapping risk is more of a concern for local-level business owners rather than senior-level executives at foreign companies.

December 18, 2023: Gunmen kidnapped a local transportation business owner in Tijuana.

Targeted extortion attempts: LOW RISK

Extortion by organized crime risks is not a major risk for large foreign companies operating in Tijuana even though Mexico is the world’s worst hotspot for extortion. Tijuana recorded only 43 cases of extortion in 2023. Government data on extortion is not reliable in Mexico as many cases are not reported. However, there are no recent incidents in Baja California such as arson attacks at factories, targeted mass shootings of employees, or the killing of senior managers or foreign executives that are often associated with extortion. Sources in Baja California say that extortion of major foreign companies is not currently part of the strategy of the organized crime groups in Baja California. Most extortion threats in Tijuana are likely to affect small local businesses rather than large multinational companies.

June 23, 2023: A woman was shot and killed in front of a daycare center in Tijuana. In Mexico, violent attacks on local businesses are in many cases associated with broader attempts by criminal groups to intimidate and extort local business owners.

Cargo truck hijacking: LOW RISK

Cargo truck hijacking is currently not a major risk for foreign companies operating in Baja California. The state of Baja California recorded only 12 violent cargo truck hijacking incidents in 2023. Even though Mexico is Latin America’s top hotspot for violent cargo truck hijacking, currently the risk is highly concentrated in the Mexico City metro area. Around half of all hijackings take place in just two states (Mexico State and Puebla). According to Latin American Lens’s quarterly assessment of cargo truck hijacking risk in Mexico, Mexico’s six northern border states (including Baja California) accounted for just 1 percent of the overall number of hijackings tallied by Mexico’s federal government in 2023. Cargo truck hijacking is a bigger risk for companies bringing products to Baja California on overland routes from central Mexico. Cargo truck hijacking is not currently a top risk for foreign companies in Baja California. The risk profile could change if criminal groups start diversifying into new rackets, a trend that has happened in other states in Mexico.

June 15, 2023: A cargo truck driving on Bulevar 2000 in Tijuana was hijacked by armed criminals.

INDIRECT SECURITY RISKS:

Random killing of employees or managers: MEDIUM RISK

In 2023 Tijuana recorded more murders than any other city in Mexico. Tijuana has earned an unfortunate reputation as one of the world’s most dangerous cities (in terms of per capita homicides.) Over 80 percent of the murders committed in Baja California are concentrated in Tijuana, one of the highest-risk cities for shootouts in Mexico. In 2023, Tijuana’s per capita homicide rate was more than double Detroit’s. Preliminary figures indicate that Tijuana recorded 1,868 murders in 2023, a 9 percent decline compared to 2022. Homicide hotspots in Tijuana include all four of the neighborhoods that abut the U.S. border: Playas de Tijuana, Zona Centro, Mesa de Otay, and Centenario. Residents and visitors in Tijuana face ongoing risk of injury or death during shootouts between criminal gunmen or battles between criminals and security forces or during random robberies or carjackings. Another potential risk is that criminal gunmen from one criminal group may attack and kill civilians in order to undermine the reputation of another group. This type of narco-terrorism is not the dominant modus operandi for criminal groups in Tijuana, but is a potential risk.

May 20, 2023: Ten people were killed and eleven more were injured during a gunfight between criminals at a car racing event south of Tijuana.

Armed robbery: MEDIUM RISK

Tijuana recorded 1,841 violent street muggings in 2023, a 19% increase in comparison to 2022. Criminal groups in Tijuana are not targeting foreign executives or employees of multinational companies for armed robbery. The risk of robbery is random and is highest in lower-income residential neighborhoods with weaker police presence. Robberies are not common at the entry points to foreign-owned manufacturing facilities or at upscale restaurants or shopping malls. High-risk areas for street muggings include Tijuana’s Zona Centro and Cerro Colorado neighborhoods. Official data may underestimate the risk and geographic concentration of street robberies as many incidents are not reported.

May 22, 2023: Patrons at a restaurant in Tijuana’s Chapultepec neighborhood were robbed of their personal belongings by armed assailants who fled the scene on a motorcycle.

Carjacking: HIGH RISK 

Baja California is one of the top ten highest-risk states in Mexico for violent carjackings, according to statistics from Mexico’s federal government. Tijuana recorded 6,422 violent carjackings in 2023. Random targeting for carjacking is a potential risk for foreign executives who use ridesharing services such as Uber in Tijuana. Criminal groups do not appear to be specifically targeting foreign executives or employees of multinational companies for carjacking but Tijuana presents high levels of overall risk for carjacking. Hotspots for carjacking in Tijuana include the Zona Centro, Cerro Colorado, and Centenario neighborhoods.

June 29, 2023: An Uber driver was seriously injured during a carjacking in the Chula Vista neighborhood in Tijuana.

Latin American Lens is a boutique political risk consultancy that helps foreign executives successfully navigate Latin America.

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