What Are The Highest Risk States For Cargo Truck Hijacking In Mexico?
Mexico is the highest risk country in the Americas for violent cargo truck hijackings. Foreign executives considering nearshoring investments in Mexico need to understand how organized crime affects logistics routes in different parts of Mexico. Overall, violent crime in Mexico has reached a historic high during the government of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Data from Mexico’s CONCAMIN business chamber shows that Mexico recorded over 85,000 hijackings during the last five years. Numbers from logistics security firm Overhaul show that Mexico experienced over 20,000 cargo truck hijackings in both 2022 and 2023. Business chambers estimate that Mexico is now recording over 50 cargo truck hijackings per day. Statistics from Mexico’s federal government paint an incomplete but helpful illustration of the true dimensions of the problem. Latin American Lens publishes quarterly reports on cargo truck hijacking risk in Mexico. Overall, our research indicates that the top hotspots for cargo truck hijacking in Mexico (according to the official data from Mexico’s federal government) are:
Mexico State: The sprawling state that surrounds Mexico City is the top hotspot for cargo truck hijacking in Mexico. Mexico State tallied 3,634 hijackings in 2023. Estado de Mexico is home to a number of powerful diversified organized crime groups including the New Generation Jalisco Cartel and the Familia Michoacana as well as an entire ecosystem of smaller criminal groups. Mexico state alone accounts for nearly half (46 percent) of all of the cargo truck hijackings that Mexico’s federal government recorded in 2023.
Puebla: The state of Puebla, home to major VW and Audi production facilities, is the second worst state in Mexico for cargo truck hijacking, according to the Mexico’s national security system data. Total, Puebla recorded 2,533 hijackings in 2023. The number of hijackings recorded in Puebla increased by 44 percent in 2023. Together, Puebla and Mexico State accounted for 78 percent of the violent cargo truck hijackings Mexico’s federal government tallied in 2023.
Michoacan: Michoacan is another top hotspot for cargo truck hijacking in Mexico. The state recorded 564 hijackings in 2023. Michoacan, Mexico’s top avocado exporting state, has an immensely complex security dynamic characterized by the presence of a number of powerful, diversified, organized crime groups.
Jalisco: Jalisco is home to Guadalajara, one of Mexico’s most successful nearshoring cities. Jalisco is a base for major U.S. companies including Oracle, HP and IBM. Jalisco is also has a diversified agrarian economy that produces a variety of products ranging from tequila (a product that earned Mexico $4.2 billion in export revenues in 2023) to berries. Jalisco also hosts powerful organized crime groups, including the New Generation Jalisco Cartel. Jalisco recorded 243 violent cargo truck hijackings in 2023. The true incidence of cargo truck hijacking in Jalisco is likely significantly worse than the official figures indicate.
San Luis Potosi: The state of San Luis Potosi recorded 219 hijackings in 2023. San Luis Potosi is one of the top highest risk states for cargo truck hijacking in Mexico. San Luis Potosi has a successful automotive cluster and sits on major highway routes to the U.S. Local Spanish-language newspapers in San Luis Potosi provide very little information or analysis on the state’s issues with cargo truck hijacking, making it harder for foreign executives to assess the potential risk.
Another hotspot for hijacking is the state of Guanajuato, where the federal government numbers are likely underestimating the true level of risk. Veracruz is another problematic state. One other hotspot to watch is Oaxaca, which recorded 163 violent cargo truck hijackings in 2023, up 58 percent from 2022.
Mexico City recorded only 66 hijackings in 2023. Although most cargo truck hijackings in Mexico are concentrated in the Mexico City metro area (in Estado de Mexico and Puebla), Mexico City itself is categorized by lower levels of risk than the surrounding states.
There are no states that abut the U.S.-Mexico border in the top ten highest risks states in Mexico for cargo truck hijacking. Overall, Mexico’s northern border states account for a tiny fraction (around 1 percent) of violent cargo truck hijackings in Mexico.
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This article was originally published by Latin American Len's Director of Research Nathaniel Parish Flannery on Forbes.com.